折旧牛熊之争的要害就在这三个词的错位：会计折旧、物理寿命、经济寿命。Balaban 赌第三个最长，但经济寿命不是工程常数，是市场变量——旧卡能活多久，取决于新卡缺不缺货。而“空头一直都错”这句话，从一个资产负债表上压满 GPU 的 CEO 嘴里说出来，本身就是一张仓位单。

“But that's not the usable life. The usable life is longer than the accounting depreciation schedule. And what really matters is the economic usable life. And so what we're starting to see is that like the people who are the naysayers, oh, this is going to be, you're going to throw these GPUs out in five years, are completely wrong. They're completely wrong and they've been wrong the entire time.”

「但那不是可用寿命。可用寿命比会计折旧表要长。而真正重要的是经济可用寿命。所以我们开始看到,那些唱衰的人——说什么这些 GPU 五年就得扔掉——完全错了。他们完全错了,而且从头到尾一直都错。」机翻 · claude-fable-5