把「相信直觉」拆成两半，是这句话的狠处：直觉感知的是需求，想法只是实现假设，胜率差三倍。Zynga 当年被骂克隆工厂，正是这套教义的代价——他宁要有纪律的抄加改，不要浪漫的四十五次乱枪。AI 把试错成本打到地板之后，这话只会更对。

“we have these instincts like in our gut these human level instincts that are pretty much always right and then we, put these ideas on top of the instincts that are usually wrong, and my rule of thumb is your instincts are right ninety five percent of the time your ideas are wrong seventy five percent or at best right twenty five percent of the time”

「我们内心有这些直觉,这种人性层面的直觉几乎总是对的,然后我们在直觉之上叠加想法,而想法通常是错的。我的经验法则是:你的直觉95%的时候是对的,你的想法75%是错的,最好的情况也只有25%是对的」机翻 · claude-fable-5