“Everyone was told, throw your hormones in the garbage. This is dangerous. What was crazy is those people who were prescribing hormone therapy, who were looking around saying, I don't understand. My patients aren't dying of heart disease, they're not getting extra breast cancers. Like this doesn't make any sense. And when people actually looked at the study, it didn't say any of those things.”
「所有人都被告知:把你的激素药扔进垃圾桶,这很危险。荒唐的是,那些开激素疗法的医生环顾四周说,我不明白——我的病人没有死于心脏病,也没有多得乳腺癌,这根本说不通。而当人们真去翻那份研究时,它压根没说过那些话。」
“But then when we flipped it and we looked at what the women were drawn to, not what they said, but what they were drawn to, they also tended to like the ambitious men a little bit, and the magnitude of that preference was identical.”
「但当我们反过来看女性真正被什么吸引——不是她们嘴上说的,而是她们实际被吸引的——她们同样会稍微更偏爱有野心的男性,而且这份偏好的强度一模一样。」
“So I don't think I was naturally a good CEO. And I remember up to the pandemic. At one point, I wonder, I wonder if I'm just not meant to be a CEO. Maybe I'm not meant to do it. And then the pandemic happened. We had a near death experience. And I said, well, screw all the rumination. Like, is do or die. And I feel like I learned how to do the job”
「所以我不觉得我天生是个好 CEO。我记得一直到疫情之前,有一阵我在想,我是不是根本不适合当 CEO,也许我就不是干这块料的。然后疫情来了,公司经历了一次濒死。我说,去他的反刍内耗,这是生死关头。我觉得我就是那时候学会了怎么干这份工作」
“What you will see is like AI is going to be blamed for absolutely everything, right? Like because it's the perfect scapegoat, it's the perfect gerardian scapegoat for everything, right? Like it's like it can't fight back”
「你会看到,AI 将被拿来背所有的锅,对吧?因为它是完美的替罪羊,是吉拉尔意义上完美的替罪羊——它不会还手」
“we have these instincts like in our gut these human level instincts that are pretty much always right and then we, put these ideas on top of the instincts that are usually wrong, and my rule of thumb is your instincts are right ninety five percent of the time your ideas are wrong seventy five percent or at best right twenty five percent of the time”
「我们内心有这些直觉,这种人性层面的直觉几乎总是对的,然后我们在直觉之上叠加想法,而想法通常是错的。我的经验法则是:你的直觉95%的时候是对的,你的想法75%是错的,最好的情况也只有25%是对的」
“We found a surprising success of like don't do a swarm or anything. Just have one Devin. You know, it does its own context mention. Just let it keep running for a while and give it some crazy tasks. I think we asked it to like rebuild like a Windows OS system. Yes. And it managed to do it just like you know going on for long enough.”
「我们发现了一个出人意料的成功路径:别搞 swarm,什么都别搞,就用一个 Devin。它自己管理上下文,就让它一直跑下去,给它一些疯狂的任务。我们让它去重建一个类似 Windows 的操作系统。是的。它真的做成了——就是靠跑得够久。」
“But that's not the usable life. The usable life is longer than the accounting depreciation schedule. And what really matters is the economic usable life. And so what we're starting to see is that like the people who are the naysayers, oh, this is going to be, you're going to throw these GPUs out in five years, are completely wrong. They're completely wrong and they've been wrong the entire time.”
「但那不是可用寿命。可用寿命比会计折旧表要长。而真正重要的是经济可用寿命。所以我们开始看到,那些唱衰的人——说什么这些 GPU 五年就得扔掉——完全错了。他们完全错了,而且从头到尾一直都错。」
“I believe like scaling laws define architecture, you know how the how how does it do that? When you are talking about transformers being this revolutionary thing, we are talking about maximum scale.”
「我相信,是缩放律在定义架构——它是怎么做到的?当你说 transformer 是革命性的东西时,你实际在说的是最大规模。」